Predicting habitat suitability of the critically endangered Be'er Sheva fringe-fingered lizard

Anthropogenic changes, such as land use, are the main drivers causing climate change and biodiversity loss, with hundreds of thousands of species lacking sufficient habitats for their populations to persist and likely to go extinct within decades. Endemic species are more susceptible to habitat changes and are at the forefront of the biodiversity crisis. We used species distribution models to generate a relative habitat suitability map and identified the habitat requirements of the critically endangered and endemic Be'er Sheva fringe-fingered lizard (Acanthodactylus beershebensis). The model showed that the species' suitable habitats are associated with arid loess plains characterized by scattered, low vegetation cover, primarily on north-facing aspects, suggesting that these species-specific habitat requirements limit its distribution. The size of the potentially suitable area within the species' historical range is 1350.73 km². However, anthropogenic changes decreased the remaining suitable habitat to 995.04 km². Most of this area is unprotected and at risk of further adverse anthropogenic effects. Only 91.72 km² of this area is protected by the Israel Nature and Parks Authority, and 587.11 km² may be considered indirectly protected because it is within military firing zones. Our study is the first attempt to map the remaining suitable habitat of A. beershebensis based on the results of a species distribution model. The results of this model can assist in prioritizing the protection of areas needed for the conservation of this critically endangered and endemic lizard species.