Development of a prediction score for Barrett's esophagus in Japanese health checkup settings

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has recently increased in Asia, including Japan. A system to identify individuals at high risk for Barrett's esophagus (BE), a pre-cancerous condition of esophageal adenocarcinoma, among the general population is needed to perform endoscopic surveillance appropriately. We therefore developed risk prediction scores for BE at health checkups in Japan.

4128 consecutive health checkup examinees were retrospectively enrolled from October 2021 to March 2022. A prediction score for BE was developed based on the linear transformation of β-regression coefficients in a multivariable regression model incorporating BE predictors. Internal validation was performed by evaluating discrimination and calibration of the prediction model.

Three prediction scores corresponding to BE based on its length were developed: all lengths, ≥ 1 cm, ≥ 2 cm. All scores were internally validated, and the model calibration was excellent. The performance of the prediction models was better for longer BE, with a c-statistic of 0.70 for BE ≥ 2 cm, than for shorter values. The prediction score for BE ≥ 2 cm yielded sensitivity and specificity of 52.9% and 78.6% in high-risk subjects and 91.2% and 29.3% in intermediate- or high-risk subjects, respectively.

This prediction score can potentially increase the endoscopic detection of BE by identifying potentially high-risk individuals from the general population. This is the first report on developing a prediction score for BE that may suit the Japanese population.