Effects of environment and human activities on rice planting suitability based on MaxEnt model

Rice is one of the major food crops, and the study of suitable planting areas for rice plays an important role in improving rice yield and optimizing the production layout. This study used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to simulate and predict the distribution of suitable rice planting areas in China from 1981 to 2020 by combining the climate, soil, and human activities, analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of suitable rice planting areas in China, and determined the main factors affecting rice planting suitability. The results indicated that the main factors influencing the distribution of suitable planting areas for rice in China were gross domestic product (GDP), population density (Pop), and annual sunshine duration (Sun), with human activities playing a dominant role. The high suitable planting areas of rice were mainly distributed in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Guangdong, southeastern Sichuan and western Guizhou. The total suitable planting areas for rice were 346.00 × 10⁴ km², 345.66 × 10⁴ km², 347.01 × 10⁴ km², and 355.57 × 10⁴ km² from 1981 to 1990, 1991 to 2000, 2001 to 2010 and 2011 to 2020, respectively. With the passage of time, the area of unsuitable areas for rice gradually decreased, and the area of medium suitable areas increased, with large changes in the area of high- and low-suitable areas. Moreover, due to the transfer of a large number of rural laborers to the cities in recent years, the tension between people and land caused by the population explosion has led to the increasing impact of Pop on rice suitable areas and the relatively weakening of the impact of GDP on rice production interventions. The results can be used to provide scientific evidence for the management of rice cultivation and food production safety, with a view to reducing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the context of global climate change.