A 19-year analysis of hot and cold temperature burdens on mortality in Amman, Jordan

Most studies on climate-induced health effects have primarily focused on developed countries. Jordan, in particular, has seen limited research in quantifying the differential impacts of temperature on mortality. Jordan's unique demographic composition, characterized by significant refugee population influxes, necessitates research in this area to identify vulnerable populations. This study aims to: 1) quantify the mortality burden of hot and cold temperature in Amman, Jordan, and 2) identify vulnerable groups within the population.

We collected 19 years of daily all-cause mortality records from 2000 to 2018 in Amman, Jordan, aggregated by sex and nationality. We used a time series design in a distributed lag non-linear model for temperature to estimate non-linear associations and lagged effects of temperature on mortality across sex and nationality. We calculated attributable mortality for temperatures above (heat) and below (cold) the minimum mortality temperature for each category.

We analyzed 184,166 all-cause mortalities; 106,977 were males, and 22,118 were non-Jordanians. Amman's calculated minimum mortality temperatures were 23.2 °C for males, 21.5 °C for females, 22.3 °C for Jordanians, and 24.7 °C for non-Jordanians. Our findings reveal that females exhibited greater vulnerability to heat, with a 2.59 % (1.54 %, 3.59 %) heat attributable mortality fraction compared to 1.17 % (0.53 %, 1.80 %) for males, while non-Jordanians were susceptible to cold, with an 8.36 % (2.83 %, 14.66 %) cold attributable mortality fraction compared to 5.91 % (4.37 %, 7.41 %) for Jordanians.

This study highlights the increased vulnerability of marginalized communities in Amman to temperature extremes. It emphasizes the need for further research to identify at-risk groups not only in Amman but also in other cities across Jordan. Such research is crucial for developing targeted protective strategies to safeguard these populations.