Mapping environmental suitability changes for arbovirus mosquitoes in Southeast Asia: 1960-2020

Spatial epidemiology recognizes the impact of environmental factors on human infectious diseases through disease vectors. The expansion of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus raises concerns about health risks due to their changing distribution. However, current mosquito mapping methods have low spatial resolution and limited focus on long-term trends and factors. This study develops a high-resolution framework (500 m) to map mosquito distribution in Southeast Asia from 1960 to 2020. It includes a species distribution model, a spatial autocorrelation model, and a geographical detector model. The study produces Southeast Asia's first 500 m resolution map of mosquito suitability, revealing significant increases in mosquito suitability in most cities over the past 60 years. The analysis indicates a shift in high-suitability areas from coastal to inland regions, with nighttime land surface temperature playing a key role. These findings are crucial for regional risk assessments and mitigation strategies related to vector-borne diseases.