How changes projected by climate models can inform climate adaptation and marine sanctuary management: A...

Area of Science:

• Marine Biology
• Climate Science
• Environmental Management

Background:

• Coral reefs are vital ecosystems threatened by climate change.
• Existing climate models are often too expensive for local environmental management.
• Adaptive governance strategies are needed for reef stewardship.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop cost-effective, site-specific climate projections for coral reef management.
• To integrate climate data with ecosystem response models and social science insights.
• To understand how environmental managers are implementing adaptive governance for coral reefs.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble (CESM2-LE) for site-specific climate metrics.
• Employing ecosystem response models to assess coral bleaching risk (Degree Heating Months).
• Gathering social science data through engagement with environmental managers in a major marine sanctuary.

Main Results:

• Demonstrated a novel collaborative approach to generate tailored climate projections.
• Quantified potential coral bleaching impacts under future climate scenarios.
• Identified adaptive governance strategies employed by marine sanctuary managers.

Conclusions:

• This research provides a scalable, cost-effective framework for reef climate adaptation.
• It empowers environmental managers with actionable data for innovative policy and dialogue.
• Fosters experimental approaches to reef stewardship in the face of climate change.