Low-latitude mesopelagic nutrient recycling controls productivity and export

Low-latitude (LL) oceans account for up to half of global net primary production and export^1-5. It has been argued that the Southern Ocean dominates LL primary production and export⁶, with implications for the response of global primary production and export to climate change⁷. Here we applied observational analyses and sensitivity studies to an individual model to show, instead, that 72% of LL primary production and 55% of export is controlled by local mesopelagic macronutrient cycling. A total of 34% of the LL export is sustained by preformed macronutrients supplied from the Southern Ocean via a deeper overturning cell, with a shallow preformed northward supply, crossing 30° S through subpolar and thermocline water masses, sustaining only 7% of the LL export. Analyses of five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, run under both high-emissions low-mitigation (shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP5-8.5)) and low-emissions high-mitigation (SSP1-2.6) climate scenarios for 1850-2300, revealed significant across-model disparities in their projections of not only the amplitude, but also the sign, of LL primary production. Under the stronger SSP5-8.5 forcing, with more substantial upper-ocean warming, the CMIP6 models that account for temperature-dependent remineralization promoted enhanced LL mesopelagic nutrient retention under warming, with this providing a first-order contribution to stabilizing or increasing, rather than decreasing, LL production under high emissions and low mitigation. This underscores the importance of a mechanistic understanding of mesopelagic remineralization and its sensitivity to ocean warming for predicting future ecosystem changes.