Mapping consumptions and market size of cocaine, amphetamine and MDMA through wastewater analysis: A Dutch case study

Illicit drug consumption is associated with public health effects and criminal activities. This study aimed to estimate Illicit drug consumption and annual market in the Netherlands from wastewater analysis of drug residues.

Residues of cocaine, amphetamine and 3,4-methylene dioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) were measured between 2015 and 2022 in 30 Dutch wastewater treatment plants serving both rural and urban populations. These wastewater treatment plants covered 20% of the total Dutch population. The Dutch annual retail market was estimated by extrapolating consumption to the total Dutch population, back-calculating consumption volume, correcting for drug purity and street price collected in voluntary checking services, and accounting for the correlation of consumption and urbanity.

The per capita MDMA and cocaine consumption correlated positively with the urbanity of the wastewater treatment plant catchments with r² of 31% and 64%, respectively. Amphetamine did not show a significant correlation with urbanity. The three studied drugs were conservatively estimated to cover an average annual market value of 903 (95% prediction interval 829 to 987) million Euro for the studied period. Market estimations from prevalence figures and interceptions of international trade were similar.

Illicit drug consumption in the Netherlands appears to correlate positively with urban (in contrast to rural) areas. Wastewater analysis can be used to estimate the volume and monetary value of illicit drug markets as a proof of concept.