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Identifying factors related to mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients using machine learning methods

Farzaneh Hamidi1, Hadi Hamishehkar2,3, Pedram Pirmad Azari Markid4

  • 1Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

Heliyon
|August 22, 2024
PubMed

Insights

This study developed a machine learning model to predict COVID-19 mortality risk in hospitalized patients. The model accurately identifies high-risk individuals, improving healthcare response.

Area of Science:

  • Medical Informatics
  • Machine Learning in Healthcare
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic caused global health and economic challenges.
  • Hospitalized COVID-19 patients face significant mortality risks.
  • Understanding mortality predictors is crucial for patient management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify factors influencing mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
  • To develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting COVID-19 mortality risk.
  • To enhance healthcare system responsiveness for high-risk patients.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Elastic Net for feature selection and ranking of mortality predictors.
  • Developed an artificial neural network (ANN) model using identified key features.
  • Evaluated model performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Main Results:

  • Analyzed 706 COVID-19 patients with 96 initial features.
  • Identified 26 crucial features predicting mortality risk.
  • The ANN model, using 20 features, achieved a 98.8% AUC for mortality risk stratification.

Conclusions:

  • The developed machine learning model provides accurate and rapid mortality risk predictions for COVID-19 patients.
  • This tool can significantly improve the timely identification and management of high-risk individuals.
  • The model enhances healthcare system efficiency in responding to the pandemic.
Abstract

Keywords:
Artificial neural networkCOVID-19Elastic netFeature selectionLASSOMachine learningMortality

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