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Impact of Varying Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Programs on HIV and Neisseria gonorrhoeae Transmission Among MSM in the
Maarten Reitsema1, Jacco Wallinga1, Ard I van Sighem2
1Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
Background:
In 2019, a 5-year pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program started in the Netherlands, in which up to 8500 men who have sex with men (MSM) can obtain PrEP and 3-monthly consultations with HIV/STI testing.
Setting:
We assessed the impact of the PrEP program on transmission of HIV and Neisseria gonorrhea (NG) among MSM in the Netherlands and examined prospective variations of the program after 2024.
Methods:
We used an agent-based model to estimate the effect of the PrEP program. For hypothetical prospective PrEP programs starting in 2024, we varied the capacity (8,500; 12,000; 16,000 participants) and consultation frequency (3-monthly; 6-monthly; 70% 3-monthly and 30% 6-monthly).
Results:
At a capacity of 8,500 participants and 3-monthly consultations, the PrEP program could lead to 3,140 [95% credible interval (95% CrI): 1,780-4,780] and 27,930 (95% CrI: 14,560-46,280) averted HIV and NG infections, requiring 316,050 (95% CrI: 314,120-317,580) consultations. At a capacity of 16,000 participants, the programs with 3-monthly consultations and 6-monthly consultations could lead to comparable number of averted HIV [3,940 (95% CrI: 2,420-5,460), and 3,900 (2,320-5,630) respectively] and NG infections [29,970 (95% CrI: 15,490-50,350), and 29,960 (95% CrI: 13,610-50,620) respectively], while requiring substantially different number of consultations: 589,330 (95% CrI: 586,240-591,160) and 272,590 (95% CrI: 271,770-273,290), respectively.
Conclusions:
Continuation of a PrEP program could lead to a substantial reduction in HIV and NG transmission. More infections could be averted if the number of participants is increased. In turn, the consultation frequency could be reduced without reducing the number of averted infections if capacity is increased.
Insights
The Dutch pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program significantly reduces HIV and Neisseria gonorrhea (NG) transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Increasing PrEP program capacity averts more infections, allowing for reduced consultation frequency without compromising effectiveness.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Prevention
Background:
- A 5-year pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program for men who have sex with men (MSM) was initiated in the Netherlands in 2019.
- The program provides PrEP and quarterly HIV/STI testing for up to 8,500 participants.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the impact of the Dutch PrEP program on HIV and Neisseria gonorrhea (NG) transmission among MSM.
- To examine prospective variations of the PrEP program beyond 2024.
Main Methods:
- An agent-based model was employed to estimate the effects of the PrEP program.
- Simulations explored varying program capacities (8,500, 12,000, 16,000 participants) and consultation frequencies (3-monthly, 6-monthly, mixed).
Main Results:
- At 8,500 participants and 3-monthly consultations, the program averted an estimated 3,140 HIV and 27,930 NG infections.
- Increasing capacity to 16,000 participants with 3-monthly or 6-monthly consultations yielded comparable averted infections but with significant differences in consultation numbers.
- A capacity of 16,000 participants with 6-monthly consultations required substantially fewer consultations (272,590) compared to 3-monthly (589,330).
Conclusions:
- Continuation of the PrEP program is projected to substantially reduce HIV and NG transmission.
- Expanding program capacity can avert more infections.
- Increased capacity allows for reduced consultation frequency without compromising the number of averted infections.
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