Progression predictors of clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis: A prospective study in China

Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is a preclinical phase of multiple sclerosis (MS). The progression rate of CIS to clinical definite MS (CDMS) varies significantly across different populations, and identifying predictors of progression is crucial for early diagnosis and treatment. We aimed to investigate predictors of progression from CIS to CDMS in a Chinese cohort.

A single-center cohort study was conducted with newly diagnosed patients with CIS in China between 2018 and 2021. All patients underwent a comprehensive clinical evaluation, including neurological examination, magnetic resonance imaging, and laboratory tests. Follow-up assessments were conducted at regular intervals to monitor disease progression. Progression to CDMS was defined according to the 2017 McDonald criteria. Age, sex, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, number of patients with magnetic resonance imaging gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) lesions, T2 lesions and Gd+ lesions count, CSF cell count, CSF total protein, CSF and serum neurofilament light chain (NfL), progranulin (PGRN) and Th17-related cytokines (IL-6, IL-17, IL-21, IL-22, IL-23 and TGF-β) were measured for association with risk of progression to CDMS.

A total of 96 CIS patients were recruited in the study. During the at least 24 months follow-up period, 57 (59.38 %) CIS patients progressed to CDMS, while 39 (40.62 %) patients without progression remained stable as CIS. Multivariate analysis revealed that younger age at onset (OR= 43.43, 95 % CI= 1.76-1071.68, p<0.021), higher CSF elevated protein (OR=58.64, 95 % CI=2.72-1264.51, p=0.009), higher CSF NfL levels (OR= 97.00, 95 % CI= 4.68-2012.99, p=0.003) and higher CSF IL-23 levels (OR= 412.02, 95 % CI=6.56-25869.60, p=0.004) were associated with high risk of progression to CDMS.

Younger age at onset, elevated CSF NfL, IL-23 and protein levels might be progression predictors of CIS to CDMS in Chinese population.