Ecologic, Geoclimatic, and Genomic Factors Modulating Plague Epidemics in Primary Natural Focus, Brazil.

Area of Science:

• * Environmental Science
• * Epidemiology
• * Genomics

Background:

• * Plague, a zoonotic disease, continues to pose a significant public health risk globally.
• * Understanding the ecological and genetic drivers of plague activity is crucial for effective control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• * To investigate the interplay of environmental, host, vector, and genomic factors in plague activity.
• * To identify specific risk areas and understand the evolution of Yersinia pestis in the Araripe Plateau focus, Brazil.

Main Methods:

• * Combined epidemiologic, host, and vector surveillance data (1961-1980).
• * Integrated ecologic, geoclimatic, and Yersinia pestis genomic data.
• * Analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of plague activity and human cases.

Main Results:

• * Identified plague hotspots in low-altitude areas with distinct precipitation and vegetation patterns.
• * Observed a seasonal effect, with human cases correlating with precipitation and rodent/flea Y. pestis positivity.
• * Genomic analysis revealed a foundational Y. pestis strain with variants linked to specific outbreaks.

Conclusions:

• * Environmental and genetic factors significantly influence plague distribution and activity.
• * The findings can aid in identifying high-risk areas and improving plague surveillance in the Caatinga biome.
• * Understanding Y. pestis evolution is key to predicting and managing outbreaks.