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Optimizing Disease Outbreak Forecast Ensembles
Abstract:
On the basis of historical influenza and COVID-19 forecasts, we found that more than 3 forecast models are needed to ensure robust ensemble accuracy. Additional models can improve ensemble performance, but with diminishing accuracy returns. This understanding will assist with the design of current and future collaborative infectious disease forecasting efforts.
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Steps in Outbreak Investigation
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However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
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Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...

