The predicting value of post neoadjuvant treatment magnetic resonance imaging: a meta-analysis

Neoadjuvant therapy has become standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancer patients. It is correlated with improved clinical and pathological outcomes, including significant tumor downstaging and organ preservation in certain patients. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which has become the standard for pre-operative staging, is also used for clinical and pre-operative restaging following pre-operative treatment. In this meta-analysis, we aimed to evaluate the concordance between restaging MRI (following the completion of neoadjuvant therapy) and postoperative pathology result.

We conducted a meta-analysis following the PRISMA 2020 guidelines. Two independent reviewers searched PubMed and Google Scholar for studies reporting restaging MRI results compared to pathological outcomes. Outcomes included tumor and nodal staging, circumferential resection margin (CRM) and pathological complete response (pCR).

Out of 25,000 studies found on the initial search; 33 studies were included. The studies were published between 2005 and 2023 and included 4100 patients (57.14% males). The median age was 62.45 years. The median interval between the conclusion of neoadjuvant treatment and the subsequent restaging MRI was 6 weeks (range 4.14-8.8 weeks). The pooled concordance rates between the restaging MRI and the pathological outcomes for ypT stage and ypN stage were 63.9% (54.5%-73.3%, I² = 96.02%) and 60.9% (42.9%-78.9%, I² = 98.96%), respectively. The pooled concordance for predicting pathological complete response was 70.4% (53.6%-87.1%, I² = 98.21%). As for the circumferential resection margin (CRM), the pooled concordance was 78.2.% (71.6%-84.8%, I² = 83.76%).

Our findings suggest that the concordance rates between restaging MRI and pathological outcomes in rectal cancer patients following neoadjuvant therapy are limited. Caregivers should take these results into consideration when making clinical decisions about these patients. More data should be gathered about the predictive value of MRI after total neoadjuvant therapy as well as immunotherapy in rectal cancer patients.