Development and validation of a predictive model for preoperative deep vein thrombosis following traumatic thoracolumbar fractures

Jiangtao Ma ¹, Miao Tian ¹, Yanbin Zhu ^1,2

¹Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Hebei Medical University Third Hospital, Shijiazhuang, 050051, Hebei, People's Republic of China.
²Orthopaedic Institution of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, 050051, Hebei, People's Republic of China.
³Hebei Orthopaedic Clinical Research Center, Hebei Medical University Third Hospital, Shijiazhuang, 050051, Hebei, People's Republic of China.
⁴Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Hebei Medical University Third Hospital, Shijiazhuang, 050051, Hebei, People's Republic of China. yzzhang111@126.com.
⁵Orthopaedic Institution of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, 050051, Hebei, People's Republic of China. yzzhang111@126.com.
⁶Hebei Orthopaedic Clinical Research Center, Hebei Medical University Third Hospital, Shijiazhuang, 050051, Hebei, People's Republic of China. yzzhang111@126.com.
⁷Key Laboratory of Biomechanics of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, 050051, Hebei, People's Republic of China. yzzhang111@126.com.
⁸Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing, 100088, People's Republic of China. yzzhang111@126.com.
⁹NHC Key Laboratory of Intelligent Orthopaedic Equipment, Hebei Medical University Third Hospital, Shijiazhuang, 050051, Hebei, People's Republic of China. yzzhang111@126.com.
¹⁰Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Hebei Medical University Third Hospital, Shijiazhuang, 050051, Hebei, People's Republic of China. lixiuting2021@126.com.

⁰Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Hebei Medical University Third Hospital, Shijiazhuang, 050051, Hebei, People's Republic of China.

Scientific Reports +

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August 22, 2024

View abstract on PubMed

Summary

This study developed a nomogram to predict deep vein thrombosis (DVT) risk in patients with thoracolumbar fractures. The validated model aids in early diagnosis and intervention for this challenging condition.

Area Of Science

Orthopedics
Vascular Surgery
Medical Informatics

Background

Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) diagnosis after fractures presents challenges.
Standard DVT work-up protocols may not fully address fracture-related risks.
Early identification of DVT is crucial for timely intervention.

Purpose Of The Study

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting preoperative DVT risk.
Utilize readily available clinical data for risk assessment.
Improve early diagnosis of DVT in thoracolumbar fracture patients.

Main Methods

A prediction model was developed using a training cohort of 930 patients.
The model was visualized as a nomogram based on eight key predictors.
Model performance was assessed using ROC curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, calibration, and decision curve analyses.
Validation was performed on a separate cohort.

Main Results

The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive performance with AUCs of 0.876 (training) and 0.853 (validation).
The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good model fitness in both cohorts.
Calibration and decision curve analyses confirmed the model's clinical utility.

Conclusions

A validated nomogram for preoperative DVT risk prediction in thoracolumbar fractures was successfully developed.
The model offers accurate and clinically useful risk stratification.
This tool can aid in the early diagnosis and management of DVT in this patient population.