Associations Between Changes in Maximum Daily Atrial Fibrillation Duration, Ischemic Stroke, and Mortality

Atrial fibrillation (AF) outcomes are strongly associated with continuous measures of AF burden.

This study sought to assess the association between changes in maximum daily AF duration (MDAFD) and stroke or mortality in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs).

The Optum deidentified electronic health record data set (2007-2021) was linked with the Medtronic CareLink heart rhythm database. Patients with CIEDs and health care activity recorded in the electronic health record were included, excluding those with oral anticoagulation prescription. MDAFD was assessed 30 days post implant (baseline period) and 30 days before censoring or an event. HRs for the primary analysis were adjusted for components of CHA₂DS₂-VASc, baseline MDAFD category, and chronic kidney disease.

Of 26,400 patients (age 68 ± 13 years; follow-up 2.6 ± 1.6 years) analyzed, 2,544 (9.6%) had AF during baseline. Increased (vs stable or decreased) MDAFD category in follow-up was associated with a higher adjusted rate of stroke and mortality (HR: 1.80; 95% CI: 1.61-2.01). There was no association between decreased MDAFD in follow-up and the combined endpoint (HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.68-1.00). Subgroup analysis by baseline MDAFD category demonstrated that increased MDAFD in follow-up was associated with a greater risk of stroke or mortality among patients with no AF at baseline, and decreased MDAFD in follow-up was associated with a lower risk of stroke or mortality among patients with baseline MDAFD of 1 to <5.5 hours and 5.5 to <23.5 hours.

In CIED patients not on oral anticoagulation, increased MDAFD in follow-up was associated with a higher rate of stroke and mortality. These results suggest that AF burden, and associated risk, s not stable over time.