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Resurrection of Dormant Daphnia magna: Protocol and Applications
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Partial tipping in bistable ecological systems under periodic environmental variability.

Ayanava Basak1, Syamal K Dana1, Nandadulal Bairagi1

  • 1Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology, Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, India.

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Periodic environmental changes can unexpectedly shift ecological systems between states, like population booms or collapses. This tipping behavior depends on environmental variation frequency, potentially leading to species survival or extinction.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Periodic environmental variability is a key factor influencing ecosystem dynamics.
  • Understanding how fluctuating parameters affect ecological systems is crucial for predicting population changes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of periodic variations in species growth rates on population dynamics.
  • To analyze three distinct bistable ecological models: insect population, predator-prey, and food chain systems.

Main Methods:

  • Numerical simulations were employed to study the effects of periodic forcing on species growth rates.
  • Analysis focused on attractor switching, basin boundary dynamics, and tipping phenomena in non-chaotic and chaotic systems.

Main Results:

  • Periodic growth rate variations can induce attractor switching without bifurcation, especially near basin boundaries.
  • Partial tipping (sudden population shifts) can occur in both non-chaotic and chaotic systems under specific conditions.
  • Tipping probability exhibits a frequency response, with a maximum at a particular forcing frequency.

Conclusions:

  • Time-dependent growth parameters can lead to unpredictable population outbreaks or declines.
  • Environmental variation frequency plays a critical role in determining species survival or extinction.
  • These findings highlight the sensitivity of ecological systems to periodic environmental fluctuations.