A mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) adult development rate model confirms evolved geographic...

Insects live in a wide range of thermal environments and have evolved species- and location-specific physiological processes for survival in hot and cold extremes. Thermally driven dormancy strategies, development rates and thresholds are important for synchronizing cohorts within a population and to local climates and often vary among populations within a species. Mountain pine beetle (MPB), Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is a widely distributed forest insect native to North America with clinal genetic differentiation in thermally dependent traits. MPB development occurs in Pinus phloem beneath the bark, and its cryptic habitat makes experimentation difficult, particularly for the adult stage. We describe a novel method for modeling MPB adult development following pupation and terminating in emergence from a brood tree. We focus on an Arizona (southern) MPB population with previously described preadult development rates. Field-observed tree attack, adult emergence, and phloem temperature data are combined in a parameterized cohort model and candidate rate curves are evaluated to describe adult emergence timing. Model competition indicates that the Brière rate curve provided the best fit to field data and performed well under cross-validation. Results confirm that the development of Arizona MPB adults is slower than the previously described development rate of more northern Utah adults. Using the estimated adult rate curve in a scenario of increasing mean temperatures, we show that the timing of second-generation adult emergence in the same year would result in cold-intolerant lifestages during winter, limiting the success of bivoltine populations.