Explainable machine-learning-based prediction of QCT/FEA-calculated femoral strength under stance loading...

Finite element analysis can provide precise femoral strength assessment. However, its modeling procedures were complex and time-consuming. This study aimed to develop a model to evaluate femoral strength calculated by quantitative computed tomography-based finite element analysis (QCT/FEA) under stance loading configuration, offering an effective, simple, and explainable method. One hundred participants with hip QCT images were selected from the Hong Kong part of the Osteoporotic fractures in men cohort. Radiomics features were extracted from QCT images. Filter method, Pearson correlation analysis, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method were employed for feature selection and dimension reduction. The remaining features were utilized as inputs, and femoral strengths were calculated as the ground truth through QCT/FEA. Support vector regression was applied to develop a femoral strength prediction model. The influence of various numbers of input features on prediction performance was compared, and the femoral strength prediction model was established. Finally, Shapley additive explanation, accumulated local effects, and partial dependency plot methods were used to explain the model. The results indicated that the model performed best when six radiomics features were selected. The coefficient of determination (R²), the root mean square error, the normalized root mean square error, and the mean squared error on the testing set were 0.820, 1016.299 N, 10.645%, and 750.827 N, respectively. Additionally, these features all positively contributed to femoral strength prediction. In conclusion, this study provided a noninvasive, effective, and explainable method of femoral strength assessment, and it may have clinical application potential.