Cardiovascular event reduction among a US population eligible for semaglutide per the SELECT trial

Our objective was to determine the number of major cardiovascular events (MACE, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death) and deaths from any cause that could be prevented across varying nationwide uptake of semaglutide 2.4 mg SC weekly for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Using a nationally representative cross-sectional study of participants in the 2017-2018 and 2019-March 2020 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in the U.S. (NHANES), we estimated the number of MACE and deaths from any cause potentially prevented over a four-year period among participants meeting SELECT trial inclusion criteria.

In a sample of n = 216 individuals (corresponding to 4,473,681 adults in the U.S. population) potentially eligible for this therapy, a total of 356,329 MACE and 232,808 all-cause mortality events were expected without semaglutide over 4 years and 35,633 MACE and 22,117 all-cause mortality events would be prevented with 50% uptake of semaglutide.

Approximately 4.5 million adults in the U.S. are forecasted to be eligible for semaglutide 2.4mg SC weekly therapy, with substantial impact on CVD and mortality if accessible and broadly used.