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Cereal Crop Ear Counting in Field Conditions Using Zenithal RGB Images
Published on: February 2, 2019
Yield prediction for crops by gradient-based algorithms.
Pavithra Mahesh1, Rajkumar Soundrapandiyan1
1School of Computer Science and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, Tamilnadu, India.
Accurate crop yield prediction using machine learning aids farmers. Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) machine learning model achieved 99.123% accuracy in forecasting crop yields, outperforming LightGBM and XGBoost.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Data Science
- Machine Learning
Background:
- Accurate crop yield assessment is crucial for farmer income, loss minimization, and strategic agricultural planning.
- Crop yield prediction is a significant challenge in agriculture, impacting decision-making and policy.
- Environmental and economic factors influence crop selection and yield.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate and compare the performance of various machine learning algorithms for crop yield forecasting.
- To identify the most accurate machine learning model for predicting crop yields based on key parameters.
Main Methods:
- Developed forecasting models using machine learning algorithms: Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost).
- Utilized parameters including pesticides, rainfall, and average temperature for model training.
- Calculated Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and R-squared (R2) values to assess prediction accuracy against observed rice yields.
Main Results:
- CatBoost achieved the highest precision with an accuracy rate of 99.123%.
- RMSE and R2 values for CatBoost were 800 (0.24), LightGBM were 737 (0.33), and XGBoost were 744 (0.31).
- Compared to other algorithms, CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost demonstrated superior accuracy in crop yield prediction.
Conclusions:
- Machine learning algorithms, particularly CatBoost, show significant promise for accurate crop yield prediction.
- The study framework provides a reliable method for evaluating ML model performance in agriculture.
- Accurate yield forecasts can support farmers and policymakers in agricultural commodity management.

