Supplying the ethanol demand for 2030 in Brazil as a land-based climate change mitigation alternative: Implications...

Transitioning from a fossil-based to a bio-based economy is crucial to climate action and achieving neutrality in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Biofuel production is an essential land-based GHG mitigation alternative. However, it raises concerns about biodiversity conservation, competition with food production, and net GHG emissions associated with direct land-use change (dLUC). This study aims to assess how the location and conversion routes influence GHG emissions for sugarcane expansion in Brazil to supply ethanol demand projections for 2030. A consistent and significant reduction in GHG emissions is achievable by implementing a strategy that prioritizes the spatial distribution for ethanol biorefinery expansions based on georeferenced life cycle emissions, including dLUC emissions associated with sugarcane production. Because of conservative zoning for sugarcane expansion, dLUC emissions are not an overriding factor, representing less than 9.1 % of the total GHG mitigation potential. Despite that, accounting for georeferenced dLUC emissions when prioritizing expansion facilities leads to spatial differences. Regarding conversion routes and land requirements, using cellulosic biorefineries could meet future projected demand based on sugarcane production from 3.1 million hectares, mostly in currently degraded pastureland. Conventional refineries would require 5.5 million hectares to meet the same demand of 71 billion liters. Despite the 77 % higher land demand to produce the same volume of ethanol, conventional refineries with straw recovery could be considered if electricity generation is a priority. This study illustrates how Brazil can achieve GHG mitigation targets while attending to future energy demand and protecting areas with high biodiversity.