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Indicator-based assessment of potential supply risks for pharmaceutical excipients: Method and application
Kosuke Nemoto1, Yusuke Hayashi1, Hirokazu Sugiyama1
1Department of Chemical System Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
This study assessed pharmaceutical excipient supply risks in Japan using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI). Magnesium stearate, tablets, and capsules pose the highest risks, necessitating mitigation strategies like diversification.
Area of Science:
- Pharmaceutical Sciences
- Supply Chain Management
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Pharmaceutical excipients are critical for drug formulation and delivery.
- Ensuring a stable supply chain for excipients is vital for public health.
- Market concentration can lead to significant supply risks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply an indicator-based system for assessing pharmaceutical excipient supply risks.
- To identify high-risk excipients, dosage forms, and disease categories in the Japanese market.
- To provide actionable recommendations for mitigating identified supply risks.
Main Methods:
- Systematic survey, data collection, and indicator value calculation.
- Adaptation of the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) for market concentration analysis.
- Case studies at compound, dosage form, and disease levels for risk assessment.
Main Results:
- Magnesium stearate identified as a high-risk compound due to its widespread use and market concentration.
- Tablets and capsules indicated higher supply risks compared to granules, highlighting the need for dosage form diversification.
- Adult disease drug supply chains may be vulnerable due to reliance on tablet formulations.
Conclusions:
- The indicator-based assessment effectively identifies pharmaceutical excipient supply vulnerabilities.
- Diversification of excipients and dosage forms is crucial for supply chain resilience.
- Strategic shifts away from high-risk formulations, like tablets for adult diseases, are recommended.
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