[Risk Prediction and Risk Factors of Thrombotic/Bleeding Events in Patients with Myeloproliferative Neoplasm]

To analyze the clinical characteristics and occurrence of thrombotic/bleeding events of patients with myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN), and explore the main influencing factors, and create a risk prediction.

The clinical data of 126 MPN patients with BCR-ABL fusion gene negative in the Department of Hematology of Gansu Provincial Hospital from January 2016 to September 2021 were collected, and their clinical characteristics, occurrence of thrombotic/bleeding events and main influencing factors were analyzed and summarized retrospectively. Then, a risk prediction model for thrombotic/bleeding events in MPN patients was constructed.

Among 126 MPN patients, 50 patients (39.7%) had experienced thrombotic/bleeding events, including 44 patients (34.9%) with thrombotic events and 6 patients (4.8%) with bleeding events. Among thrombotic diseases, cerebral thrombosis was the most common (23/44, 52.3%), followed by 9 cases of limb artery thrombosis mainly characterized by finger and toe tip artery ischemia, occlusion and gangrene (9/44, 20.5%). Bleeding events included intracerebral hemorrhage and gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Univariate analysis showed that hypertension, hyperhomocysteinemia, white blood cell (WBC) ≥10×10⁹/L, hematocrit (HCT) ≥49%, platelet (PLT) ≥600×10⁹/L and JAK2V617F gene mutation were risk factors for thrombotic/bleeding events in MPN patients, while CALR gene mutation was a protective factor. Multivariate analysis showed that hypertension and PLT≥600×10⁹/L were independent risk factors for thrombotic/bleeding events in MPN patients. The goodness of fit of the constructed risk prediction model was 0.872, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.838. The model was validated with clinical data, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy was 78.85%, 87.83% and 84.13%, respectively .

The risk of thrombotic/bleeding events in MPN patients with high WBC count, hypertension and hyperhomocysteinemia is higher. Controlling hypertension and hyperhomocysteinemia and reducing WBC and PLT counts are helpful to prevent thrombotic/bleeding events and improve the life quality of patients.