Dynamics of agricultural transformation in Punjab: Crop trends, instability and decomposition analysis

Agricultural transformation in Punjab, spurred by the Green Revolution of the mid-1960s, has led to significant shifts in land use patterns, crop diversification, and cropping dynamics. This transformation has profound implications for sustainability and economic resilience. This study delves into the complex relationship among agricultural growth, instability, and environmental sustainability in Punjab. It examines the growth and instability in the state's key crops' area, production, and yield/productivity over 56 years, from 1966-1967 to 2021-2022. Using secondary data, this study employs an assortment of methodologies, including compound annual growth rate, simple linear regression, diversity indices such as the Herfindahl index and Simpson diversity index, instability analysis, and decomposition analysis. The results indicate an increase in cropping intensity, indicating agricultural intensification, with a shift towards wheat and rice monoculture from once diverse cropping patterns. The instability analysis reveals that wheat and rice emerge as the most stable crops in their area, production, and yield, while others exhibit instability, raising concerns about diminishing crop diversity and its implications for Punjab's natural resources. The study emphasizes the urgent necessity for sustainable agricultural practices and policies to counteract monoculture's adverse effects and ensure long-term agricultural resilience.