Multi-generational dispersal and dynamic patch occupancy reveals spatial and temporal stability of seascapes

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Invasive Species Biology
• Conservation Science
• Biophysical Modeling

Background:

• Non-native species (NNS) success relies on dispersal and connectivity, influenced by environmental changes and human activities.
• Marine hydrodynamic patterns are altered by global change and anthropogenic impacts, causing variability in dispersal pathways.
• Multi-generational dispersal is often overlooked in NNS spread studies and management strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a novel approach for quantifying species spread, considering range expansion and temporal network formation.
• To model multi-generational dispersal of the non-native Pacific oyster (Magallana gigas) in northwest Europe over 13 generations.
• To analyze the temporal stability of ecological networks formed by NNS dispersal.

Main Methods:

• Combined biophysical modeling with dynamic patch occupancy models.
• Incorporated environmental factors and graph network theory.
• Modeled multi-generational dispersal of Magallana gigas across 13 generations.

Main Results:

• Magallana gigas demonstrated rapid range expansion via a stable ecological network.
• Maximum network size was reached within four generations, followed by temporally stable connectivity patterns.
• Connectivity phases identified: network growth (2000-2003) and network stability (2004-2012).

Conclusions:

• This study is the first to assess how dispersal trajectories impact the temporal stability of ecological networks at biogeographic scales.
• The developed approach enables site-based prioritization for NNS management across invasion timelines.
• The framework is broadly applicable to Marine Protected Area design, threatened species management, and climate change-driven range expansions.