Predicting hospitalization costs for pulmonary tuberculosis patients based on machine learning

Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a prevalent chronic disease associated with a significant economic burden on patients. Using machine learning to predict hospitalization costs can allocate medical resources effectively and optimize the cost structure rationally, so as to control the hospitalization costs of patients better.

This research analyzed data (2020-2022) from a Kashgar pulmonary hospital's information system, involving 9570 eligible PTB patients. SPSS 26.0 was used for multiple regression analysis, while Python 3.7 was used for random forest regression (RFR) and MLP. The training set included data from 2020 and 2021, while the test set included data from 2022. The models predicted seven various costs related to PTB patients, including diagnostic cost, medical service cost, material cost, treatment cost, drug cost, other cost, and total hospitalization cost. The model's predictive performance was evaluated using R-square (R²), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) metrics.

Among the 9570 PTB patients included in the study, the median and quartile of total hospitalization cost were 13,150.45 (9891.34, 19,648.48) yuan. Nine factors, including age, marital status, admission condition, length of hospital stay, initial treatment, presence of other diseases, transfer, drug resistance, and admission department, significantly influenced hospitalization costs for PTB patients. Overall, MLP demonstrated superior performance in most cost predictions, outperforming RFR and multiple regression; The performance of RFR is between MLP and multiple regression; The predictive performance of multiple regression is the lowest, but it shows the best results for Other costs.

The MLP can effectively leverage patient information and accurately predict various hospitalization costs, achieving a rationalized structure of hospitalization costs by adjusting higher-cost inpatient items and balancing different cost categories. The insights of this predictive model also hold relevance for research in other medical conditions.