Predicting Conservation Status of Testudoformes under Climate Change Using Habitat Models

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Conservation Biology
• Climate Change Science

Background:

• Climate change is altering species distribution ranges, increasing biodiversity loss and extinction risks.
• Investigating future distribution shifts is vital for effective biodiversity conservation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the future distribution ranges and conservation status of 268 Testudoformes species under climate change scenarios.
• To identify species most vulnerable to extinction due to climate-induced range contractions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized species distribution models (SDMs) to predict future habitat suitability for Testudoformes.
• Analyzed distribution range changes under two distinct climate change scenarios.

Main Results:

• Over 50% of the studied Testudoformes species are predicted to experience significant declines in their distribution ranges.
• Three critically endangered species (Three-striped roofed turtle, Durango mud turtle, Colombian mud turtle) face severe range contraction and potential extinction.
• Some species may experience range expansion, but this requires cautious interpretation.

Conclusions:

• Climate change poses a substantial threat to Testudoformes, with many species facing reduced habitats and increased extinction risk.
• Conservation efforts must consider climate change impacts alongside habitat degradation and human activities for vulnerable species.
• Future research should integrate additional factors like invasions and land-use change for a holistic risk assessment.