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Modelling the Influence of Climate and Vector Control Interventions on Arbovirus Transmission.

Emma L Fairbanks1, Janet M Daly2, Michael J Tildesley1

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A new model integrates climate and vector control to assess disease spread by insects. Insecticide-treated nets significantly reduce African horse sickness virus transmission in the UK.

Keywords:
African horse sicknessCulicoidesSchmallenbergbasic reproduction numberbluetongueepizootic haemorrhagic diseasemodellingvectorial capacity

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Entomology
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Vectorial capacity models typically focus on climate or control measures separately.
  • Existing models do not fully integrate climate, vector control, host availability, and feeding cycle impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a novel, integrated model for vectorial capacity incorporating climate and vector control.
  • To apply the model to arboviruses of veterinary importance in Europe and assess control strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Combined features of existing models to create a novel vectorial capacity model.
  • Incorporated climate factors, vector control tools (affecting each feeding cycle stage), host availability, and host preference.
  • Applied the model to African horse sickness virus (AHSV), bluetongue virus (BTV), Schmallenberg virus (SBV), and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) in Europe.

Main Results:

  • African horse sickness virus (AHSV) shows higher peak vectorial capacity than BTV, SBV, and EHDV.
  • AHSV's high mortality results in a similar basic reproduction number to BTV.
  • Insecticide-treated stable netting significantly reduces Culicoides-borne AHSV transmission in the UK, even at low coverage.

Conclusions:

  • The integrated model provides a comprehensive tool for predicting disease spread under various climate and control scenarios.
  • Insecticide-treated stable netting is an effective control strategy for AHSV in the UK.
  • The model can inform policy decisions for mitigating climate change impacts on disease control.