Fall Trajectories in Older Men: Trajectories of Change by Age and Predictors for Future Fall Risk

Area of Science:

• Gerontology
• Epidemiology
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Limited understanding of longitudinal fall patterns in aging populations.
• The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS) provides a robust cohort for investigating fall trajectories.
• Identifying distinct fall patterns is crucial for targeted interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To classify older men into distinct fall trajectories over time.
• To identify baseline predictors associated with different fall risk groups.
• To inform strategies for fall prevention in aging men.

Main Methods:

• Utilized group-based trajectory modeling on 15 years of fall data from 5,976 MrOS participants.
• Assessed associations between baseline characteristics and trajectory group assignment.
• Employed logistic regression to compare high-risk vs. low-risk fall groups.

Main Results:

• Identified 5 distinct fall trajectories, with 2 classified as high-risk (steeply increasing and persistently high fall risk).
• Model fit was reasonable, with high posterior probabilities for all trajectories.
• Baseline predictors included body mass index, central nervous agents, diabetes, Parkinson's disease, back pain, grip strength, and health scores.

Conclusions:

• Two high-risk fall trajectories were identified in older men.
• Predictive baseline characteristics suggest fall risk can be identified early.
• Findings support proactive fall risk assessment and intervention strategies.