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Exchange rate pass-through for European Union countries
1CBER - Research Centre in Business, Economics & Resources, Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Plos One
|August 29, 2024
Summary
Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in EU countries is linear and diminishing over time. Import dependency and geopolitical uncertainty significantly impact ERPT to import prices.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- International Finance
Background:
- European Union (EU) countries face significant inflationary pressures linked to geopolitical events.
- Understanding exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is critical for managing price stability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the ERPT to import prices for 16 EU countries from 2006 to 2022.
- To identify factors influencing the degree and persistence of ERPT.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model.
- Analyzed data spanning January 2006 to December 2022 for 16 EU countries.
Main Results:
- Confirmed a linear, diminishing ERPT trend over time in the EU.
- Found that higher import dependency correlates with greater ERPT.
- Observed increased ERPT significance and persistence during periods of high uncertainty.
Conclusions:
- ERPT in the EU is predominantly linear and weakening.
- Country-specific factors like import reliance and geopolitical uncertainty are key determinants of ERPT.
- Findings aid policymakers in assessing exchange rate risks and macroeconomic stability.
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