A worldwide analysis of stranded fossil fuel assets' impact on power plants' CO2 emissions

  • 0Department of Sociology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. dogr2184@colorado.edu.

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Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Power plants emitted more carbon dioxide (CO2) in countries with fossil fuel assets at risk from climate policies. This increases the risk of exceeding global carbon budgets, particularly in the U.S. and Russia.

Area Of Science

  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Economics
  • Energy Policy

Background

  • Climate policies aim to reduce carbon emissions by devaluing fossil fuel reserves.
  • The impact of potential fossil fuel stranding on power plant emissions remains under-researched.

Purpose Of The Study

  • To investigate whether power plants emit more CO2 in anticipation of climate policies that threaten fossil fuel assets.
  • To quantify the effect of stranded asset risk on global CO2 emissions from power plants.

Main Methods

  • Utilized a global dataset of individual power plant CO2 emissions (2009-2018).
  • Correlated emissions data with the value of countries' at-risk fossil fuel assets under a 1.5°C warming scenario.

Main Results

  • Power plants emitted more CO2 in countries with higher values of at-risk fossil fuel assets.
  • This effect is theorized to stem from regulatory leniency and long-term fossil fuel contracts.
  • The additional annual CO2 emissions, while seemingly small, significantly deplete the electricity sector's carbon budget over time.

Conclusions

  • Anticipation of climate policies may paradoxically increase CO2 emissions from power plants due to stranded asset risks.
  • The U.S. and Russia face significant carbon budget depletion (up to 16% and 12% respectively within a decade) due to this effect.
  • Urgent policy interventions are needed to align power plant operations with climate goals and prevent budget overruns.

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