Causal association between serum bilirubin and ischemic stroke: multivariable Mendelian randomization

Previous research has predominantly focused on total bilirubin levels without clearly distinguishing between direct and indirect bilirubin. In this study, the differences between these forms were examined, and their potential causal relationships with ischemic stroke were investigated.

Two-sample multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) analysis was employed, extracting summary data on bilirubin from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II (n=159,844) and the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (n=72,299). Data on ischemic stroke were obtained from BioBank Japan (n=201,800). Colocalization analysis was performed, focusing on the UGT1A1, SLCO1B1, and SLCO1B3 genes, which are the primary loci associated with serum bilirubin levels.

Crude 2-sample Mendelian randomization analysis revealed a significant negative association between total bilirubin levels and ischemic stroke. However, in MVMR analyses, only indirect bilirubin demonstrated a significant negative association with ischemic stroke (odds ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.59 to 0.98). Colocalization analysis did not identify a shared causal variant between the 3 genetic loci related to indirect bilirubin and the risk of ischemic stroke.

Our study establishes a causal association between higher genetically determined levels of serum indirect bilirubin and reduced risk of ischemic stroke in an Asian population. Future research should include more in-depth analysis of shared genetic variants between indirect bilirubin and ischemic stroke.