Timing of menarche and pubertal growth patterns using the QEPS growth model

To explore the timing of menarche, postmenarcheal growth, and to investigate the impact of various variables on menarcheal age and postmenarcheal and pubertal growth.

This longitudinal community population-based study analyzed pubertal growth and menarcheal age in 793 healthy term-born Swedish girls, a subset of the GrowUp₁₉₉₀Gothenburg cohort. The timing of menarche and postmenarcheal growth was related to variables from the Quadratic-Exponential-Pubertal-Stop (QEPS) growth model, birth characteristics, and parental height. Multivariable models were constructed for clinical milestones; at birth, age 7 years, pubertal growth onset, and midpuberty.

Menarche aligned with 71.6% (18.8) of the QEPS model's specific pubertal growth function, at a mean age of 13.0 (1.3) years, ranging from 8.2 to 17.2 years. Postmenarcheal growth averaged 8.0 (4.9) cm, varying widely from 0.2 to 31.1 cm, decreasing with later menarche. Significant factors associated with menarcheal age included height at 7 years, childhood body-mass index, parental height, and QEPS-derived pubertal growth variables. Multivariable models demonstrated increasing explanatory power for each milestone, explaining 1% of the variance in menarcheal age at birth, 8% at age 7 years, 44% at onset of pubertal growth, and 45% at midpuberty.

This study underscores the strong link between pubertal growth and age at menarche. Data available at start of puberty explain 44% of the variation in menarcheal age, apparent on average 3.2 years before menarche. In addition, the study shows a previously seldom noticed wide variation in postmenarcheal height gain from 0.2 to 31.1 cm.