Predicting resistance and pseudoprogression: are minimalistic immunoediting mathematical models capable of forecasting checkpoint inhibitor treatment outcomes in lung cancer?

The increased application of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) targeting PD-1/PD-L1 in lung cancer treatment generates clinical need to reliably predict individual patients' treatment outcomes.

To bridge the prediction gap, we examine four different mathematical models in the form of ordinary differential equations, including a novel delayed response model. We rigorously evaluate their individual and combined predictive capabilities with regard to the patients' progressive disease (PD) status through equal weighting of model-derived outcome probabilities.

Fitting the complete treatment course, the novel delayed response model (R²=0.938) outperformed the simplest model (R²=0.865). The model combination was able to reliably predict patient PD outcome with an overall accuracy of 77% (sensitivity = 70%, specificity = 81%), solely through calibration with primary tumor longest diameter measurements. It autonomously identified a subset of 51% of patients where predictions with an overall accuracy of 81% (sensitivity = 81%, specificity = 81%) can be achieved. All models significantly outperformed a fully data-driven machine learning-based approach.

These modeling approaches provide a dynamic baseline framework to support clinicians in treatment decisions by identifying different treatment outcome trajectories with already clinically available measurement data.

Conjoint application of the presented approach with other predictive tools and biomarkers, as well as further disease information (e.g. metastatic stage), could further enhance treatment outcome prediction. We believe the simple model formulations allow widespread adoption of the developed models to other cancer types. Similar models can easily be formulated for other treatment modalities.