Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Public Health
• Sociology

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic introduced significant social and economic shifts, prompting concerns about a potential decline in birth rates, often termed a "baby bust."
• Previous research links societal changes to delayed and reduced fertility, necessitating an examination of recent trends.
• California's large and diverse population offers a valuable dataset for understanding broader U.S. fertility patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze fertility trends in California during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• To differentiate pandemic-related fertility changes from pre-existing trends.
• To investigate heterogeneous fertility responses among different demographic groups.

Main Methods:

• Utilized restricted vital statistics data from California, representing a significant portion of U.S. births.
• Employed time series models to analyze fertility trends, accounting for long-term patterns.
• Compared birth data from mid-2020 to early 2021 with pre-pandemic and recessionary periods.

Main Results:

• Observed modest, short-term reductions in births from mid-2020 to early 2021.
• Post-2021 birth trends mirrored or exceeded the decline pace seen since the 2008 recession, indicating factors beyond the pandemic.
• Fertility declined significantly among the foreign-born population, primarily due to migration changes.
• Among the U.S.-born, reductions were most pronounced in older, highly educated individuals.
• No strong correlation was found between the pandemic's employment shock and overall fertility rates.

Conclusions:

• The COVID-19 pandemic had a limited, short-term impact on California's overall fertility rates.
• Pre-existing fertility decline trends, exacerbated by factors like migration, played a significant role.
• The findings highlight a growing divergence between macroeconomic conditions and U.S. fertility patterns, with resource-rich groups experiencing distinct impacts.