Assessment of meteorological drought impacts on rainfed agriculture using remote sensing-derived biomass productivity

Assessing drought impacts is necessary for pursuing sustainable development goals relevant to food security and land degradation. Data availability is a major restriction and remote sensing has been promoted for this purpose. Version 3 of WaPOR has been released in 2023, which provides global coverage of remote sensing-derived water productivity indicators and could allow improved analysis of drought impacts, but validation is still needed. This study explores the utility of remote sensing-derived productivity data from WaPOR as a proxy indicator for agricultural drought impacts. The analysis utilized (1) production surveys, (2) meteorological measurements for drought analysis, and (3) remote sensing-derived gross and net biomass water productivities (GBWP & NBWP) and total biomass production (TBP). All layers were analyzed against the Standardized Precipitation and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPI and SPEI) over drought-vulnerable locations in Irbid and Madaba governorates in Jordan. Strong and significant correlations (R² 0.5-0.8, P < 0.05) were obtained between drought intensities and GBWP and NBWP layers, particularly in the May-Sep periods. These correlations were higher than previously tested remotely sensed indicators for agricultural drought impacts. Water productivity and biomass production averages were lower during drier periods and higher during wet periods, but pairwise testing did not reveal significant differences. There is sufficient evidence that WaPOR data demonstrates behavior that reflects agricultural response to drought, and further assessment in other agroclimatic zones is recommended. This could potentially allow for enhanced evaluation of management strategies, decision support, and policy recommendations for drought mitigation.