Integrating machine learning for enhanced wildfire severity prediction: A study in the Upper Colorado River basin

Wildfires pose significant threats worldwide, requiring accurate prediction for mitigation. This study uses machine learning techniques to forecast wildfire severity in the Upper Colorado River basin. Datasets from 1984 to 2019 and key indicators like weather conditions and land use were employed. Random Forest outperformed Artificial Neural Network, achieving 72 % accuracy. Influential predictors include air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, NDVI, and fuel moisture. Solar radiation, SPEI, precipitation, and evapotranspiration also contribute significantly. Validation against actual severities from 2016 to 2019 showed mean prediction errors of 11.2 %, affirming the model's reliability. These results highlight the efficacy of machine learning in understanding wildfire severity, especially in vulnerable regions.