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ESC pre-test probability estimates for obstructive coronary artery disease: can they be used in Brazil?
Fernanda Erthal1,2, Ronaldo Lima2,3, Filipe Penna2
1Department of Medicine (Cardiology), Universidade Federal Fluminense, Rua Marques de Parana 303, 24033-900 Niteroi, Brazil.
Insights
The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model better estimates pre-test probability (PTP) for coronary artery disease (CAD) in Brazil compared to the Diamond-Forrester (DF) model. This finding is crucial for accurate CAD diagnosis in the Brazilian population.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Medical Diagnostics
- Public Health
Background:
- Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a major global cause of death.
- Accurate pre-test probability (PTP) estimation is vital for diagnosing CAD.
- Traditional scoring systems like Diamond-Forrester (DF) and European Society of Cardiology (ESC) are used for PTP, but their population-specific applicability may vary.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the performance of the DF and ESC PTP scoring systems.
- To evaluate these models within the Brazilian population context.
- To assess PTP estimation accuracy using coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) as a reference standard.
Main Methods:
- Calculated PTP for obstructive CAD using DF and ESC scores in 409 symptomatic patients without known CAD.
- Patients underwent CCTA between 2019 and 2022.
- Compared predicted PTP from both models against actual CAD prevalence.
Main Results:
- The DF model tended to overestimate CAD prevalence across various age and symptom groups.
- The ESC model demonstrated better alignment with the actual prevalence of CAD.
- CCTA served as the reference standard for validating PTP predictions.
Conclusions:
- The ESC PTP model is more suitable for PTP determination in the Brazilian population.
- The DF model's overestimation highlights potential limitations in this demographic.
- Accurate PTP estimation using validated models like ESC is essential for appropriate CAD management.
Aims:
Cardiovascular disease, primarily coronary artery disease (CAD), is the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Accurate diagnosis of CAD often requires pre-test probability (PTP) estimation, traditionally performed using scoring systems like the Diamond-Forrester (DF) and European Society of Cardiology (ESC) models. However, the applicability of such models in specific populations may vary. This study compares the performance of DF and PTP scores in the Brazilian context, using coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) as a reference standard.
Methods And Results:
PTP for obstructive CAD was calculated using DF and ESC scores in 409 symptomatic patients without known CAD who underwent CCTA between 2019 and 2022. Predicted PTP was compared with actual CAD prevalence. DF overestimated CAD prevalence across age and symptom categories, while ESC showed better alignment with actual prevalence.
Conclusion:
Our study confirms that the ESC PTP model is more appropriate than the DF model for determining PTP in the Brazilian population.
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