Sociopolitical context and COVID-19 fatality rates in OECD countries: a configurational approach

The effectiveness of crisis response can be influenced by various structural, cultural, and functional aspects within a social system. This study uses a configurational approach to identify combinations of sociopolitical conditions that lead to a high case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in OECD countries.

A Fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is conducted on a sample of 38 OECD countries. The outcome to be explained is high COVID-19 CFR. The five potentially causal conditions are level of democracy, state capacity, trust in government, health expenditure per capita, and the median age of population. A comprehensive QCA robustness test protocol is applied, which includes sensitivity ranges, fit-oriented robustness, and case-oriented robustness tests.

None of the causal conditions in both the presence and negation form were found to be necessary for high or low levels of COVID-19 CFR. Two different combinations of sociopolitical conditions were usually sufficient for the occurrence of a high CFR of COVID-19 in OECD countries. Low state capacity and low trust in government are part of both recipes. The entire solution formula covers 84 percent of the outcome.  Some countries have been identified as contradictory cases. The explanations for their COVID-19 CFR require more in-depth case studies.

From a governance perspective, the weakness of government in effectively implementing policies, and the citizens' lack of confidence in their government, combined with other structural conditions, serve as barriers to mounting an effective response to COVID-19. These findings can support the idea that the effects of social determinants of COVID-19 outcomes are interconnected and reinforcing.