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  11. Regional Variations In Relative Sea-level Changes Influenced By Nonlinear Vertical Land Motion

Regional variations in relative sea-level changes influenced by nonlinear vertical land motion

Julius Oelsmann1, Marta Marcos2,3, Marcello Passaro1

  • 1Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut, Technische Universität München (DGFI-TUM), Munich, Germany.

Nature Geoscience
|September 5, 2024

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View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Vertical land motion significantly impacts regional sea-level rise, causing changes up to 50 cm by 2150. Ignoring nonlinear land motion increases projection uncertainty by 1 meter, crucial for coastal impact assessments.

Area of Science:

  • Earth and Environmental Sciences
  • Geophysics
  • Oceanography

Background:

  • Absolute sea level is monitored by satellite altimetry, but vertical land motion (VLM) is less observed.
  • VLM is often modeled linearly, despite evidence of nonlinearities from tectonics, loading, or groundwater changes.
  • The temporal evolution and impact of VLM on sea-level rise projections remain uncertain.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To reconstruct probabilistic vertical land motion from 1995 to 2020.
  • To assess the impact of regional and nonlinear VLM on relative sea-level projections up to 2150.
  • To quantify the uncertainty introduced by nonlinear VLM in sea-level change projections.

Main Methods:

  • Probabilistic reconstruction of vertical land motion using observational data from 1995-2020.
Keywords:
AttributionClimate-change impactsOcean sciencesProjection and prediction

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  • Integration of VLM into relative sea-level change models.
  • Analysis of nonlinear VLM effects on regional sea-level projections.

    • Main Results:

    • Regional variations in projected coastal sea-level changes are equally influenced by VLM and climate-driven factors.
    • VLM can drive relative sea-level changes of up to 50 cm by 2150.
    • Accounting for nonlinear VLM increases projection uncertainty by up to 1 meter regionally.

    Conclusions:

    • Nonlinear vertical land motion significantly influences regional sea-level change projections.
    • Accurate sea-level rise predictions require incorporating nonlinear VLM.
    • Understanding VLM is critical for assessing future coastal impacts and adaptation strategies.
    Solid Earth sciences