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Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability.

Iris de Vries1, Sebastian Sippel2, Joel Zeder1

  • 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.

Communications Earth & Environment
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PubMed
Summary

Record-shattering precipitation events, amplified by climate change, pose significant risks. This study quantifies their increased probability, especially in high-emission futures, highlighting the role of climate variability.

Keywords:
Atmospheric scienceClimate and Earth system modellingNatural hazardsProjection and prediction

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Extreme Weather Events
  • Statistical Climatology

Background:

  • Record-breaking climate events pose severe threats to global society and ecosystems.
  • Quantifying the probability of extreme events is challenging due to natural variability and data limitations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the probability of extreme precipitation events that exceed historical records by at least one pre-industrial standard deviation.
  • To analyze the influence of climate change on the frequency of such record-shattering events.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized large ensemble climate simulations and extreme value theory.
  • Determined empirical and analytical probabilities for record-shattering precipitation events.
  • Developed a framework to quantify the impact of changing mean and variability on extreme precipitation.

Main Results:

  • Climate models project significantly higher probabilities of record-shattering precipitation globally by the end of the century under high emission scenarios.
  • Tropical regions are projected to experience the strongest increases in extreme precipitation events.
  • Increasing climate variability is a key driver of near-term increases in record-shattering precipitation probability.

Conclusions:

  • Probability estimates for record-shattering precipitation are essential for informing climate change risk assessment and adaptation strategies.
  • The study provides a framework for understanding how changes in climate mean and variability influence extreme precipitation.
  • Urgent policy action is needed to mitigate risks associated with increasingly frequent extreme weather events.