Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Extreme Weather Events
• Statistical Climatology

Background:

• Record-breaking climate events pose severe threats to global society and ecosystems.
• Quantifying the probability of extreme events is challenging due to natural variability and data limitations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the probability of extreme precipitation events that exceed historical records by at least one pre-industrial standard deviation.
• To analyze the influence of climate change on the frequency of such record-shattering events.

Main Methods:

• Utilized large ensemble climate simulations and extreme value theory.
• Determined empirical and analytical probabilities for record-shattering precipitation events.
• Developed a framework to quantify the impact of changing mean and variability on extreme precipitation.

Main Results:

• Climate models project significantly higher probabilities of record-shattering precipitation globally by the end of the century under high emission scenarios.
• Tropical regions are projected to experience the strongest increases in extreme precipitation events.
• Increasing climate variability is a key driver of near-term increases in record-shattering precipitation probability.

Conclusions:

• Probability estimates for record-shattering precipitation are essential for informing climate change risk assessment and adaptation strategies.
• The study provides a framework for understanding how changes in climate mean and variability influence extreme precipitation.
• Urgent policy action is needed to mitigate risks associated with increasingly frequent extreme weather events.