Uncertainty quantification of the pressure waveform using a Windkessel model

The Windkessel (WK) model is a simplified mathematical model used to represent the systemic arterial circulation. While the WK model is useful for studying blood flow dynamics, it suffers from inaccuracies or uncertainties that should be considered when using it to make physiological predictions. This paper aims to develop an efficient and easy-to-implement uncertainty quantification method based on a local gradient-based formulation to quantify the uncertainty of the pressure waveform resulting from aleatory uncertainties of the WK parameters and flow waveform. The proposed methodology, tested against Monte Carlo simulations, demonstrates good agreement in estimating blood pressure uncertainties due to uncertain Windkessel parameters, but less agreement considering uncertain blood-flow waveforms. To illustrate our methodology's applicability, we assessed the aortic pressure uncertainty generated by Windkessel parameters-sets from an available in silico database representing healthy adults. The results from the proposed formulation align qualitatively with those in the database and in vivo data. Furthermore, we investigated how changes in the uncertainty of the Windkessel parameters affect the uncertainty of systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressures. We found that peripheral resistance uncertainty produces the most significant change in the systolic and diastolic blood pressure uncertainties. On the other hand, compliance uncertainty considerably modifies the pulse pressure standard deviation. The presented expansion-based method is a tool for efficiently propagating the Windkessel parameters' uncertainty to the pressure waveform. The Windkessel model's clinical use depends on the reliability of the pressure in the presence of input uncertainties, which can be efficiently investigated with the proposed methodology. For instance, in wearable technology that uses sensor data and the Windkessel model to estimate systolic and diastolic blood pressures, it is important to check the confidence level in these calculations to ensure that the pressures accurately reflect the patient's cardiovascular condition.