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The pharmaceutical productivity gap - Incremental decline in R&D efficiency despite transient improvements
Kenneth D S Fernald1, Philipp C Förster1, Eric Claassen1
1Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Athena Institute, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Drug Discovery Today
|September 6, 2024
Summary
Pharmaceutical R&D efficiency remains a challenge despite recent stabilization. High late-stage clinical trial failure rates indicate a sustained turnaround in drug development is unlikely.
Area of Science:
- Pharmaceutical industry
- Drug development
- Biotechnology
Background:
- Research and development (R&D) costs for novel drugs exceed $3.5 billion.
- A five-decade trend shows declining pharmaceutical R&D efficiency.
- Recent reports suggest a potential turnaround in R&D efficiency.
Purpose of the Study:
- To perform a systems-level analysis of pharmaceutical R&D efficiency.
- To determine if recent improvements represent a structural shift or a transient reversal.
- To analyze trends between 2012 and 2023.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of financial data from the 200 largest pharmaceutical firms.
- Examination of novel drug approvals.
- Review of over 80,000 clinical trials conducted between 2012 and 2023.
Main Results:
- The pharmaceutical industry shows recent stabilization in R&D efficiency.
- Elevated late-stage clinical trial attrition persists.
- A sustained turnaround in R&D efficiency has not been achieved.
Conclusions:
- Despite stabilization, significant challenges remain in pharmaceutical R&D.
- High late-stage attrition rates hinder a genuine R&D efficiency turnaround.
- The industry faces ongoing hurdles in achieving consistent R&D productivity.
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