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Published on: March 27, 2018
CHA2DS2-VASc predicts readmission, outcomes and resource utilization in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass
Syed Emir Irfan Wafa1, Hiroyuki Sawatari2, Raheel Ahmed3
1Department of Cardiology, Russell's Hall Hospital, Dudley Group NHS Foundation Trust, UK.
Insights
The CHA2DS2-VASc score effectively predicts adverse outcomes, including higher readmission rates, longer hospital stays, and increased healthcare costs, for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting, irrespective of atrial fibrillation status.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Health Services Research
Background:
- The CHA2DS2-VASc score is standard for assessing thromboembolic risk in atrial fibrillation (AF)/atrial flutter (AFL).
- Its predictive utility for outcomes and readmissions post-coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with or without AF/AFL is understudied.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the CHA2DS2-VASc score's effectiveness in predicting outcomes, length of hospital stay (LOS), and healthcare-associated costs (HAC) after CABG.
- To assess if the score's predictive power extends to patients without a history of AF/AFL.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the National Readmission Database (NRD) from 2010-2017, including patients undergoing CABG with or without AF/AFL.
- Employed multiple regression and Cox-Hazard analyses to assess outcomes up to 90-day readmission, LOS, and HAC against the CHA2DS2-VASc score (cut-off score of 6).
Main Results:
- Of 420,458 CABG patients, 18.3% were readmitted within 90 days.
- Higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores correlated with increased 90-day readmissions (including for TIA/Stroke and heart failure) and decreased survival rates (p<0.0001).
- Increasing scores were associated with longer LOS and higher HAC (p<0.001) in both AF/AFL and non-AF/AFL groups.
Conclusions:
- The CHA2DS2-VASc score is a valuable, simple tool for predicting adverse outcomes, readmissions, LOS, and HAC after CABG.
- Its predictive utility is demonstrated in patients with and without AF/AFL, highlighting its broader applicability.
Background:
CHA2DS2-VASc score is used to assess thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF)/atrial flutter (AFL), however its utilization to predict outcomes and readmission at following discharge in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) regardless of AF/AFL presence is understudied. We sought to assess its utility in predicting outcomes, length of hospital stay (LOS), and healthcare-associated costs (HAC) in these patients.
Method:
The National Readmission Database (NRD) was queried from 2010 to 2017 for patients with/without AF/AFL undergoing CABG using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth editions (ICD-9-&-10). Multiple regression analysis and multivariate analysis using Cox-Hazard analysis were used to evaluate outcomes up to 90-day readmission from discharge, LOS, and HAC against CHA2DS2-VASc score (cut-off-score:6) were abstracted from the database.
Results:
Of the 420,458 patients that underwent CABG, 76,859 (18.3 %) were re-admitted to hospital within 90-days from discharge. Statistically significant increase in 90-day all-cause readmissions were demonstrated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score [No AF/AFL vs AF/AFL: score-0 (2.4 % vs1.4 %), score-6 (3.1 % vs 4.5 %, p-value<0.0001]. Similar trends were seen in re-admissions for TIA/Stroke and heart failure. The survival rate for all events were lower with incremental increase in CHA2DS2-VASc score (score-0 = 100 %; score-6 = 73 %, p-value<0.0001). Greater LOS and HAC was associated with increasing higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (standardized-beta[β]; no AF/AFL vs AF/AFL: LOS = score-1: 0.08 vs 0.06, score-6: 0.12 vs 0.13. HAC = score-1: 0.02 vs 0.009, score-6: 0.02 vs 0.01, p-value <0.001).
Conclusion:
CHA2DS2-VASc score is an easy-to-use tool that predicts poorer outcomes, higher readmission, longer LOS, higher HAC, not just in patients with AF/AFL undergoing CABG, but also in those without AF/AFL.
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