First‑line endocrine therapy for hormone receptor positive and HER‑2 negative metastatic breast cancer: A Bayesian...

Endocrine therapy has become the fundamental treatment option for hormone receptor-positive (HR⁺) and receptor tyrosine-protein kinase erbB-2-negative (HER2^-) metastatic breast cancer (mBC). While treatments incorporating cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK)4 and 6 inhibitors are more prevalent than ever, comparisons among those regimens are scarce. The aim of the present study was to identify the most effective maintenance treatment for patients with HR⁺ and HER2^- mBC. To this end, databases including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Scopus and Google Scholar were searched from inception to August, 2023. The endpoints comprised overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS). For dichotomous variants, hazard ratios (HRs) and odds ratios (ORs) were generated, while standard mean difference (SMD) was used for consecutive variants by Bayesian network meta-analysis to make pairwise comparisons among regimens, to determine the optimal therapy. These processes were conducted using Rstudio 4.2.2 orchestrated with STATA 17.0 MP. A total of 16 randomized controlled trials including 7,174 patients with 11 interventions were analyzed. Compared with aromatase inhibitor (AI), palbociclib plus AI (PalboAI) exhibited a significantly longer PFS up to the 36th month of follow-up [HR=1.7; 95% credible interval, 1.36-2.16], including on the 3rd [OR=2.22; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.10-4.47], 6th (OR=2.39; 95% CI, 1.21-4.69), 12th (OR=1.94; 95% CI, 1.34-2.79), 18th (OR=2.38; 95% CI, 1.65-3.44), 24th (OR=2.39; 95% CI, 1.67-3.43), 30th (OR=2.10; 95% CI, 1.62-2.74) and 36th (OR=2.66; 95% CI, 1.37-5.18) month of follow-up. Additionally, abemaciclib plus fulvestrant exhibited significant effects compared with AI alone between 12 and 36 months. Ribociclib plus fulvestrant, ribociclib plus AI and dalpiciclib plus AI exerted significant effects compared with AI alone between 12 and 30 months. Considering the effect on OS and PFS together with adverse reactions, safety, medical compliance and route of administration, PalboAI was found to be the optimal treatment for HR⁺/HER2^-mBC. However, additional head-to-head clinical trials are warranted to confirm these findings.