Prediction of chemical-induced acute toxicity using in vitro assay data and chemical structure

Exposure to various chemicals found in the environment and in the context of drug development can cause acute toxicity. To provide an alternative to in vivo animal toxicity testing, the U.S. Tox21 consortium developed in vitro assays to test a library of approximately 10,000 drugs and environmental chemicals (Tox21 10K compound library) in a quantitative high-throughput screening (qHTS) approach. In this study, we assessed the utility of Tox21 assay data in comparison with chemical structure information in predicting acute systemic toxicity. Prediction models were developed using four machine learning algorithms, namely Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and Support Vector Machine, and their performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The chemical structure-based models as well as the Tox21 assay data demonstrated good predictive power for acute toxicity, achieving AUC-ROC values ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 and 0.73 to 0.79, respectively. We applied the models to predict the acute toxicity potential of the compounds in the Tox21 10K compound library, most of which were found to be non-toxic. In addition, we identified the Tox21 assays that contributed the most to acute toxicity prediction, such as acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibition and p53 induction. Chemical features including organophosphates and carbamates were also identified to be significantly associated with acute toxicity. In conclusion, this study underscores the utility of in vitro assay data in predicting acute toxicity.