Daily motor vehicle traffic volume and other risk factors associated with road deaths in U.S. counties

Road death risk is often characterized as deaths per volume of traffic in geographic regions, the denominator in miles or kilometers supposedly indicative of the magnitude of risk exposure. This paper reports an examination of the differences in the predictive value of factors hypothesized to influence traffic volume and road death risk.

The association of 11 risk factors in U.S. counties during the first 7 months of 2020 was examined for consistency of predictions of road death and traffic volume measured by cell phone and vehicle location data. The study employed least squares regression for traffic volume and Poisson regression for deaths with the population as the offset variable.

The directions of the regression coefficients for traffic volume and odds of road deaths per population were opposite from one another for 9 of the 11 variables in the analysis of vehicle occupant deaths. Only the coefficients for maximum daily temperature and Saturday travel were in the same direction. The confidence intervals of three risk ratios for pedestrian deaths indicated low reliability but most of the predictor variables were opposite in association with traffic volume and odds of death. Although traffic volume plunged in the first weeks of the pandemic, the results for the months before and during the COVID-19 pandemic were similar.

Traffic volume is an inverse risk factor for road deaths at the local level, likely the result of lower speeds on congested roads. Without the application of countermeasures aimed at reducing speed and other risk factors, the reduction of road congestion is likely to increase deaths.