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Trend analysis on CO2 emissions and their implications: a comparative study between India and China
Kalpana Polisetty1, Christophe Chesneau2
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, School of Applied Sciences and Humanities, Vignan's Foundation for Science, Technology and Research, Vadlamudi, Guntur, 522213, India.
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
|September 10, 2024
Summary
This study compares carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions trends in India and China from 1960-2019. China shows significantly higher CO2 emission rates than India, particularly after 1989/1990.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Research
- Data Analysis
Background:
- India and China are the world's largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters.
- Understanding emission trends is crucial for global climate policy.
- Historical CO2 emission data from 1960-2019 for key sources are analyzed.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a comparative trend analysis of CO2 emissions in India and China.
- To identify abrupt changes and monotonic trends in emissions from coal, oil, cement, and gas.
- To quantify and compare the rates of CO2 emission changes between the two countries.
Main Methods:
- Non-parametric trend analysis methods were employed, including Pettitt's test, Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and Sen's slope estimator.
- Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) was used for detecting and visualizing various trend types.
- Data encompassed annual CO2 emissions from coal, oil, cement, and gas from 1960 to 2019.
Main Results:
- Pettitt's test identified an abrupt change in India's CO2 emissions in 1989 for all sources.
- China experienced abrupt changes in 1989 (coal, gas) and 1990 (oil, cement).
- All analyzed CO2 emission sources exhibited monotonic increasing trends, with significantly higher rates of change in China post-change point.
Conclusions:
- Both India and China show increasing CO2 emission trends, with China's rates being substantially higher.
- Policy recommendations include promoting renewable energy and implementing deforestation control strategies.
- The findings provide a foundation for future research on CO2 emission dynamics.
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